Chaos in Cairo

Protests in Egypt have already amassed quite a following, with an opposition figure, in the form of former IAEA head Mohammed ElBaradei, ready to take charge and unite the fragmented group of critics of the current Mubarak regime. Investors are worried that a scenario which sparked the first crisis in Tunisia, will eventually happen in Egypt and spread throughout the ME region like a domino effect. Already, a smaller copy cat situation is happening in Amman, Jordan and it has not taken an expert geo-political analyst to realize that this may have a destabilizing effect on the region as a whole.

The Philippines, from my understanding, has very little trade with Egypt. With less than 7000 overseas Filipinos in the country, remittances are not exactly affected all that much by troubles there (specifically). So what's bothering the market today? Basically, its the fact that a destabilizing effect in Egypt may cause a domino effect in the region; locally the implication has no immediate effect but considering billions of dollars are pumped in through remittances from the millions of OFWS based in the region, we have quite a bit riding on the well-being of the region (in general).

With troubles abroad, my main concern today and for the past few weeks, is the health of the market and our economy. I see our government is releasing its 4Q GDP data today (I previously stated that it would be last week, I apologize for that mistake), and with the market being battered heavily these past few weeks a good GDP number would be a breathe of fresh air at this point.

As I'm writing this, a number of my favorites are taking a beating. DMC, EDC, MBT in particular. Recently, I received a report from a foreign broker that raised its price target and rating of MBT from buy to hold. This is due to higher expected earnings in 2011 and a lower PE ratio due to the recent beating MBT took. At its current price of 64-66, I would like to post my fearless forecast of this stock reaching the 80s level within a 6-12 month period. Lets just hope this whole fiasco in Egypt boils over soon.